Art of the Iran Deal: Conspiracy

So in a conversation today on the withdrawal of the Iranian Nuclear Deal, This person made an accusation that has become pretty consistent after any political or military decisions that is made in regards to the Middle East; That it is America’s quest for Middle Eastern oil that is fueling our decisions.

I think the Logic for this argument has been sound for the last 40 or 50 years, however, I seem to be having a bit of a problem with it in today’s administration. Donald Trump is by far in sharp contrast to the last administration and former president who was very keen on making closed door deals and sometimes, taking it upon himself to make deals on behalf of the United States with limited oversight from congress. President Trump however, has been one of the most transparent presidents I have ever experienced , painfully so on many occasions(twitter-fingers), but it is not uncommon for this president to let his intentions be known.

Our oil interests and the many theories that have come with it is nothing new. This claim that America has been after Middle Eastern Oil was dramatically fueled (Pun intended) During the Iranian Revolution of the 60s, and resulting the Oil Crisis that followed it that saw skyrocketing prices and shortages that negatively affected the United States.

The Middle East has some of largest oil reserves in the world, it is only smart for our country to be in good standings with those in that region, but it is mostly in pursuit to win favor with one or all of the many powers in this region that has led us to great conflicts; conflicts that has resulted in much instability. America has many times intervened in grievances between Middle Eastern countries, has favored and supplied one over the other in hopes to win favor with the victors. Since America relies heavily on these foreign oil reserves to supply us with oil for gas, as well as for the production of countless of other products, it is in our best interest to create a sense of stability in the region, to allow easy negotiation and trade.

This last reason however is why I am not buying into this long standing accusation in the present administration. President Trump has expressed, on many occasions , his discontent for relying on foreign oil to fuel our country. He has also expressed his concerns with involving ourselves in the affairs or foreign governments, and lastly he has made continuous attempts to roll back drilling regulations and exemptions in efforts to begin drilling into our own reserves and limit the use of foreign oils, therefore limiting the power and influence of Middle Eastern countries over the United States, specifically rouge nations like Iran.

It is bad logic to suggest that our future interest in middle eastern oil , under this current administration, is directly responsible for the pulling out of the Iran Deal. This move alone, but along with the impending sanctions on Iran and any country doing business with them also on the way will no doubt cause instability and will dramatically affect trade and the price of gasoline in our own country. Unless, that is, instability in the region is exactly what the president wants?

I'm not writing this in favor or against the deal. I am more interested in the reason for pulling out of it. As I stated, I don’t think the reason is to create an atmosphere that would cause future intervention in order to overthrow a government or gain more power. I think the purpose was to cause instability and gain more favor in our own country for which to pursuit drilling endeavors in no and off ourshores.

You see, to me, the Iran deal was not a real effort to stop Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons. It may have made things a bit more difficult for them, but it didn’t stop them.

The deal does not “cut off every pathway that Iran could take to develop a nuclear weapon.” Once the regime perfects advanced centrifuges, which is allowed under the accord, the Islamic Republic’s nuclear-weapons ambitions cannot be checked. By 2025, Tehran can start assembling these models.

These high-velocity machines require small cascades. Without an extraordinarily lucky human-source intelligence penetration or sloppy Iranian telecommunications, American intelligence services would have no ability to find them hidden in warehouses.

The Obama administration was well aware of this but did not care so much as it will become the problem of a future administration. Plus, the last administration got the added benefit of establishing some kind of stability in the region ( some claim at a very huge price, some of which was paid in cash) which would have made investors more likely to not hike up oil prices.

Obama, being a huge environmentalist, would have seen this as a way to keep relations open with the Middle East, prevent any conflicts and keep in- and offshore drilling out of our own country. What is the real price of this though? Allowing the continuation of enriching uranium, continuing the production of ballistic missiles, allowing Revolutionary Guard bases, where we know Iran has engaged in nuclear-weapons research, are now effectively off-limits to inspectors, to continue, allowing human right offenses to persist.

Good deal?

Back to Trump. We can believe that DT found the old deal to have too many shortcomings and setting up a future deal that addresses them,

It wasn’t a hasty decision. The administration has been in place for over a year and for over a year we’ve attempted to work with allies to address the shortcomings on it. So, I think we now have the opportunity to move forward to address those shortcomings and make it more compelling. That effort is underway already.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis

but If we are to continue along the lines of conspiracy theories, I would suggest another reason why President Trump could have pulled out of the deal.

By creating instability in the region, he would cause oil prices to soar and create an atmosphere that will bring with it favorability amongst lawmakers in this country to begin or continue drilling within our own country and shores to offset the skyrocketing prices of gas, therefore creating billions of dollars amongst American oil companies, as well as hundreds of thousands of job opportunities, thus creating a new age of economic prosperity in our country that will make his presidency one the greatest of all time.Is this a smart decision or an appropriate chance to take? Only time will answer this question.

Anyways, I am sure many people can find alternative reasons for every decision made by those in the government and many of those are either politically leaning,rooted in some logic, or just ridiculously insane, but one important thing to remember about any theory is that they are usually never proven so it makes them hard for rational people to place confidence in them. It doesn’t mean that they are not fun to entertain, because there are those few times when an idea becomes reality, and it is those times that we marvel in our own genius.

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